NEW YORK — Storms later this year might just blow down an important line of defence for US homeowners. Warmer ocean surfaces and weaker trade-wind patterns are setting the stage for an especially fierce hurricane season.

Two states already are propping up their insurance industries. A wave of insolvencies would be problematic, but not as much as unaffordable premiums and declining property values.

There will be 11 hurricanes in 2024, based on forecasts released last month by researchers at Colorado State University.

If the prediction is correct, it would be four more than the average recorded over a recent three-decade span. There's also a qualitative element: Climate change keeps bringing more intense wind and rain.

Despite rising sea levels and stronger storms, however, there's little evidence yet that US homeowners are suffering as a result. Florida house prices, for example, have increased 23 per cent faster than the national average since 1980, using US Federal Housing Finance Agency data.

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