As the Philippines inches closer to its 2025 midterm election, its stance on the South China Sea dispute and offshore gaming operators (Pogos) could swing the vote if the government can link this to “gut issues” such as rising inflation, poverty and corruption in a “rally-around-the-flag” effect. Observers point to reactions to President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) last week where his pronouncements on the country’s stance on the West Philippine Sea – Manila’s term for its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea – and ban on Pogos received rousing applause. “We’re going to see, I think, for the first time in recent memory, the West Philippine Sea and foreign policy becoming [some of the top] issues that will define upcoming elections,” Manila-based political analyst Richard Heydarian said at a forum last Wednesday, calling the country’s maritime row with Beijing “emotionally charged”. The Philippines and China are locked in a months-long territorial dispute in the South China Sea, with clashes between vessels from both sides becoming increasingly violent. While recent surveys point to Filipinos being more concerned about domestic issues in the lead-up to elections, Heydarian, speaking at a post-SONA forum, warned the lack of urgency by the public on such stances did not mean locals did not care about the topic. A June survey by Philippine NGO Social Weather Stations showed that 72 per cent of respondents believed controlling inflation remained an urgent issue, while 44 per cent wanted the government to focus on increasing workers’ pay. Meanwhile, 5 per cent of respondents said defending the integrity of Philippine territory against foreigners was of urgent national concern – with 48 per cent approving the government’s response to the issue while 18 per cent disapproved, and 34 per cent were undecided. “Where the disinformation comes in is to say only a few people care about the West Philippine Sea. That is absolutely not true,” Heydarian however argued. He added that Manila…

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